HIV MODEL INCORPORATING DIFFERENTIAL PROGRESSION FOR TREATMENT-NAIVE AND TREATMENT-EXPERIENCED INFECTIVES

Journal article

Authors/Editors

Lungu, Edward

Research Areas

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Publication Details

Author list: Chigidi E, Lungu EM

Publisher: AIMS Press

Place: SPRINGFIELD

Publication year: 2009

Journal: Mathematical Biosciences and Engineering (1547-1063)

Journal acronym: MATH BIOSCI ENG

Volume number: 6

Issue number: 3

Start page: 427

End page: 450

Number of pages: 24

ISSN: 1547-1063

eISSN: 1551-0018

Languages: English-Great Britain (EN-GB)

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Abstract

We formulate an HIV/AIDS deterministic model which incorporates differential infectivity and disease progression for treatment-naive and treatment-experienced HIV/AIDS infectives. To illustrate our model, we have applied it to estimate adult HIV prevalence, the HIV population, the number of new infectives and the number of AIDS deaths for Botswana for the period 1984 to 2012. It is found that the prevalence peaked in the year 2000 and the HIV population is now decreasing. We have also found that under the current conditions, there production number is R(c) approximate to 1.3,which is less than the 2004 estimate of R(c) similar or equal to 4 by [11] and [13]. The results in this study suggest that the HAART program has yielded positive results for Botswana.

Keywords

equilibrium, HAART, HAART susceptible, HIV 'prevalence, infectivity reduction factor, progression reduction factor, relative impact, stability

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