Stochastic models for sunshine duration and solar irradiation

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Author list: Jain PK, Lungu EM

Publisher: Elsevier

Place: OXFORD

Publication year: 2002

Journal: Renewable Energy (0960-1481)

Journal acronym: RENEW ENERG

Volume number: 27

Issue number: 2

Start page: 197

End page: 209

Number of pages: 13

ISSN: 0960-1481

eISSN: 1879-0682

Languages: English-Great Britain (EN-GB)

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Abstract

Harmonic analysis of sunshine duration and solar irradiation measured at Sebele, Botswana is carried out. The data used consists of the monthly averages and the Julian-days averages of sunshine duration and solar irradiation sequences. This study involves splitting the time series into deterministic and stochastic components, and determining the proportion of the variance explained by each component. The stochastic component is analyzed for persistence using the Box and Jenkins technique. It is found that the stochastic component for monthly averages solar radiation series is best described by the second-order autoregressive Markov process, while that for Julian-days averages series has no memory. (C) 2002 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.

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